Debt Payoff vs Investing

The order that actually holds. Capture the full employer match, because an instant 50% return beats everything. Then kill high-interest debt, because its return is guaranteed and the market’s is not. Then invest the rest. Almost every “debt or invest?” argument is really an argument about steps two and three, and it is settled by asking which return is certain.

Why a tie goes to the debt. A 7% expected return and a 7% interest rate are not the same thing. One is a forecast with a wide range of outcomes; the other is a fact. We only call it for investing when the expected return clears the debt rate by at least 2.0% — enough to be paid something for taking the risk.

Deliberately produces no “you will be $X richer” figure: that number requires predicting the market, and false precision is exactly what this site exists to avoid. It ignores tax deductibility of mortgage interest, and assumes a 50%-up-to-6% match — check your own plan. It also cannot price peace of mind, which is a real return for some people. Educational estimate, not financial advice.